CE Barometer June 2014: Confidence Stays High

The CE Barometer for June was almost unchanged from May, with sentiment in the European construction sector continuing to point to a recovery. This continued the pattern that has been seen for most of this year, following a decisive swing into positive territory in February.

February saw confidence in the sector hit its highest levels since the start of the global financial crisis, with the CE Climate, a broad measure of sentiment, reach a balance figure of +36.4%. The balance figure is the percentage of positive responses, minus the number of negative ones.

Although subsequent months have seen some wavering in that measure of confidence, it has still remained at a high level, and in June was measured at a balance of +26.7% - almost unchanged from the May figure of +26.2%.

As in May, all the individual measures of confidence that go into the CE Climate remained high in June, although they were some way off the spike seen in April.

A balance of +42.5% of respondents said in June that they expected activity levels to be higher in a year’s time, compared to +46.7% in May and +57.6% seen in April.

Similarly, a balance of +16.3% of respondents said activity levels were better in June than a month previously, compared to +14.7% in May and +23.9% in April.

So while there have been ups and downs, and confidence was clearly higher at the start of the second quarter, the bigger picture is that sentiment clearly points to a European construction sector that is enjoying a sustained recovery.

As the ‘clock’ diagram illustrates the sentiment for a relative boom is very strong. However, it is important to interpret this correctly. The clock only indicates which way the market is heading, and how many people share that view – the length of the arrow is the strength of the sentiment. It does not indicate how big market growth will be.